04 May Week Ahead: April NFP, Fed Split & a Hormuz Oil Shock

April US nonfarm payrolls land on Friday, 08 May, the headline event in a five-session run that also brings ISM Services on Tuesday and ADP on Wednesday. The data drops into a market still digesting Brent crude at $108.17 a barrel on Friday's 01 May close and a Federal Reserve that split four ways at the 29 April hold, the highest dissent count at a single FOMC meeting since October 1992. Moreover, over the weekend, President Trump announced "Project Freedom," a US plan to escort civilian ships out of the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, 04 May.

Here’s what traders may want to know:

TL;DR

• April nonfarm payrolls will be released Friday, 08 May, at 13:30 London time, with consensus pointing to a slower headline than March's 178,000 print and unemployment near 4.3%. 

• The Fed held the federal funds target at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 April with four dissents, an 8-4 vote. 

• Brent settled at $108.17 a barrel on Friday, 01 May, down 2.02%, while WTI June futures closed at $101.94, down 2.98%. 

• "Project Freedom" begins Monday, focused on civilian vessels flagged in countries not affiliated with the conflict.

Last Week's Numbers Into this Week

The S&P 500 closed Friday, 01 May, at 7,230.12, up 0.29%, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at a record 25,114.44, up 0.89% on the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.31% to 49,499.27, and the Russell 2000 climbed 0.46% to 2,812.82. Spot gold settled at $4,644.50 per ounce, up 0.32%, and the VIX Volatility Index closed at 16.99.

As for the month of April, US indices posted their strongest April in years, supported by tech earnings, according to CNBC.

Furthermore, the USD/JPY traded near 156.5 on Friday after suspected Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention earlier in the week pulled the pair back from above 160, the weakest yen level since July 2024. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% last week, raised its inflation outlook to 2.8% from 1.9% and halved its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5%, with three of nine board members voting for a hike.

In Asia, early Monday, 04 May, S&P 500 futures traded near 7,258, up 0.20%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.1%. South Korea's Kospi rose around 4% to a fresh record, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained about 1.8%, and markets in Japan and mainland China were closed for public holidays. Brent edged down to about $108.42 a barrel and WTI June futures eased to around $101.89 in early trade following the civilian-escort plan announcement. (Source: CNBC)

Inside the 8-4 FOMC Dissent

The FOMC voted 8-4 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, 29 April, the third consecutive hold of the year. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a 25 basis point cut. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented against the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. The 4-dissent total was the highest at a single meeting since October 1992.

The meeting was Chair Jerome Powell's last before his term as chair expires on 15 May. Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee, advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee on 29 April, with the full Senate vote pending. The Fed statement noted that "developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook". 

This Week’s Economic Calendar: ISM Services, ADP, then NFP

• Tuesday 05 May: ISM Services PMI (April), with March at 54.0, down from 56.1 in February

• Tuesday 05 May: JOLTS job openings; Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision

• Wednesday 06 May: ADP Employment Change (April); EIA weekly petroleum status report

• Thursday 07 May: US weekly initial jobless claims; Q1 preliminary productivity and unit labour costs

• Friday 08 May, April nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings; University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment

For NFP, March printed 178,000 jobs against a 60,000 consensus, with unemployment at 4.3% and average hourly earnings up 3.5% year on year. Previews point to a slower April headline as the post-tariff and energy-shock periods filter into hiring data. Friday's ISM Manufacturing PMI for April held at 52.7, with the prices paid index at the highest since April 2022, attributed by the survey to oil and diesel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. 

Hormuz, "Project Freedom" and the Energy Backdrop

In a Truth Social post on Sunday, 03 May, President Trump said the United States would help free ships stranded by the Strait of Hormuz closure, with the operation, dubbed "Project Freedom", set to begin Monday, Middle East time. According to CNBC, the focus is on civilian vessels flagged in countries not affiliated with the conflict, so they can "freely and ably get on with their business." US Central Command said its forces would support merchant vessels "seeking to freely transit" the strait, with guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land and sea-based aircraft, and 15,000 service members involved. Two US officials told Axios the Navy will be "in the vicinity" rather than directly escorting commercial ships, and will guide them through lanes that were not mined by Iranian forces.

In the immediate reaction, oil prices eased in early Asian trade, with WTI June futures near $101.68 and Brent around $108.03. On Friday, both contracts had retreated as Iran's updated peace proposal reached Washington. US crude exports were at record levels in late April as global buyers sought alternatives to Middle East barrels.

The energy backdrop matters because it is feeding into the inflation side of the Fed's mandate, which is part of why the four FOMC dissents lined up the way they did.

Conclusion

The week is built around three data points and one geopolitical thread. ISM Services on Tuesday signals the early jobs-week tone; ADP on Wednesday; and Friday's payrolls land amid a Fed split four ways and a Hormuz situation in flux after the "Project Freedom" announcement.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.