27 April Week Ahead: Key Central Bank Decisions & Mag 7 Earnings

Three central bank decisions and five Magnificent Seven earnings prints land in the next three sessions this week. The Bank of Japan delivers its decision on Tuesday, 28 April. The FOMC follows on Wednesday, 29 April. The ECB closes the cluster on Thursday, 30 April. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon report on Wednesday after the New York close, with Apple on Thursday after the close. 

The cluster lands while the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed, with transit volumes a fraction of normal as insurers withdraw cover and tanker operators reroute, and US-Iran peace talks have stalled after President Donald Trump cancelled a planned negotiation in Islamabad on Saturday, 25 April 2026.

Here’s what traders may want to know:

TL;DR

• Markets (Mon 27 Apr): Asia higher on Iran/Strait of Hormuz news; Brent ~ $107; Nikkei at record highs.

• BoJ (Tue 28 Apr): ~90% expected hold (Polymarket), consensus unchanged policy.

• FOMC (Wed 29 Apr): ~99% chance hold at 3.50–3.75%; statement 19:00, presser 19:30 (London); no SEP.

• ECB (Thu 30 Apr): expected hold at 2.00% deposit rate; same-day Q1 GDP + Apr flash CPI.

• Big Tech earnings (Wed/Thu): MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN (Wed post-close), AAPL (Thu post-close); focus on AI capex vs revenue.

• US data (Thu 13:30 London): Q1 GDP + Mar Core PCE; Atlanta Fed Nowcast ~1.2%.

The Week That Was 

Before looking ahead, it’s worth reviewing the past week to better understand the current market landscape.

Last week ended with a sharp divergence across asset classes. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,165.08 on Friday, 24 April 2026, up 0.80% on the day. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 24,836.60, up 1.63%, helped by a 23.0% gain in Intel after its first-quarter earnings beat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.16% to 49,230.71. The VIX Volatility Index closed at 18.71, down 3.11%.

In commodities, Brent crude futures closed at $105.33 a barrel and WTI at $94.40, with Brent up around 14% and WTI up around 13% on the week as the Strait of Hormuz remained functionally closed. Meanwhile, spot gold closed at $4,719.55 per ounce on Friday, down around 3% on the week as nominal yields rose faster than breakevens, lifting real yields and weighing on the non-yielding metal.

In forex, the EUR/USD closed at 1.1719, down around 0.7% on the week. USD/JPY closed near 159.30, holding just below the 160 handle. GBP/USD closed at 1.3528, off about 0.4% on the week.

Monday Open: Iran Proposal Lifts Asian Markets

Monday’s (27 April 2026) session opened to a fresh headline. Axios reported, citing a US official and two sources, that Iran has submitted a new proposal to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with nuclear negotiations put off in the current draft. The White House has not formally confirmed the contents of the proposal at the time of writing.

In Asia-Pacific equities, Japan's Nikkei 225 traded around 1.4% higher, setting a fresh record above Friday's close of 59,716.18. South Korea's Kospi rose 1.83%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.17%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.54%. The risk-on tone in North Asia partly reflected the Iran-proposal headline together with stronger-than-expected China industrial profits, which rose 15.8% year-on-year in March.

In commodities, Brent crude rose around 2% to trade near $107 a barrel, with the front-month contract up 1.3%. WTI opened at $95.57 a barrel, having closed Friday at $94.40. The bid during the Asian session reflected the weekend cancellation of US-Iran talks, and Monday's Axios report only partially offset the move. Spot gold traded near $4,718.55 per ounce in early Monday trade, slightly off Friday's close.

In FX, USD/JPY traded near 159.35 in the Asian session as traders awaited the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Tuesday. EUR/USD rose 0.20% to around 1.1729 with an intraday range of 1.1705 to 1.1732. GBP/USD held near Friday's close around 1.3528.

US index futures were mixed in the Asian session, with S&P 500 futures up around 0.13% and Nasdaq futures around 1.1% higher, while Dow futures eased slightly. The VIX traded near 18.99.

Central Bank Decisions Within 72 Hours

Bank of Japan

The BoJ Policy Board meets on 27-28 April. The benchmark rate sits at 0.75%, the highest since 1995, when it was held in the March meeting on an 8-1 vote. Polymarket's implied probability of no change stood at 89.8%, in line with the broader consensus for a hold. Japan's headline CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, with core CPI excluding fresh food accelerating to 1.8%. ING is the notable non-consensus voice, suggesting an outside chance of a hike or, failing that, communications signalling a June move. Markets may pay close attention to the updated Outlook Report and any forward guidance language.

Federal Reserve

The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, 29 April. The statement is released at 19:00 London time, and Chair Powell's press conference begins at 19:30. The current target range is 3.50%-3.75%, held since the March meeting at which Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a cut. CME FedWatch and Polymarket both show an implied probability of approximately 99% for a hold. April is not a projections meeting, so there will be no updated dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections. With no fresh forecasts, the statement language and the press conference may carry more weight than usual, especially around how the Committee characterises the inflation overshoot driven by oil and tariffs against a softening growth picture. EIA crude inventories are released on Wednesday at 15:30 London, and the Treasury runs 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions throughout the week, both of which can move the same curve the FOMC is debating.

European Central Bank

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meets on 30 April. The deposit rate has been 2.00% since June 2025. OIS pricing has shifted hawkish since the energy shock, with the curve implying hikes are back on the table through 2026. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on 20 April that the central bank had "not seen energy prices rise far enough to push us squarely into our adverse scenario", arguing for more information before drawing firm conclusions. Eurozone headline inflation rose to 2.6% in March from 1.9% in February, driven by energy. Core inflation eased slightly to 2.3%.

Big Tech, Capex vs Revenue

Five of the Magnificent Seven report Q1 2026 earnings this week. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon print on Wednesday, 29 April, after the New York close. Apple follows on Thursday, 30 April, after the close. The central question is whether AI infrastructure capex is being justified by revenue growth.

Microsoft guided Azure constant-currency growth of 37% to 38% in FQ3, down from 39% in FQ2. Delivery within or above that range will frame the capex debate. Meta disclosed a full-year capex plan of $115 billion to $135 billion, almost double its 2025 spend. Apple guided FQ2 revenue growth of 13% to 16%, implying roughly $107.8 billion to $110.7 billion.

Wednesday's prints land the same day as the FOMC decision. Traders will read Powell's afternoon communication first, then earnings after the close. Apple reports the morning after the FOMC, alongside US Q1 GDP and Core PCE. Single-name volatility around earnings can be material, and after-hours moves often carry into the next session's open.

US Q1 GDP and March Core PCE

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its first estimate of Q1 2026 GDP on Thursday, 30 April, at 13:30 London time. Q4 2025 was revised down to 0.5% from an advance reading of 1.4%, mainly on weaker investment, setting a soft handover into Q1. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker stood at 1.2% as of 21 April, following softer retail sales and inventory data.

The March Personal Income and Outlays report is released at the same time and includes the Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE ran at 2.7% in Q4 2025, and the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections placed the Fed's 2026 core PCE outlook at the same 2.7%, revised up from December.

April final University of Michigan consumer sentiment printed at 49.8, the lowest on record, revised up from a preliminary 47.6 but still below pandemic and 2008 troughs. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.7% from 3.8%, the largest monthly rise since April 2025, and long-run expectations climbed to 3.5%. (Source: Money USNews)

Iran, Hormuz and Oil Prices

Iran tensions escalated over the weekend, then partially eased on Monday after a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil held near $107 as the strait remains largely closed, with supply buffers limiting the price spike. 

Conclusion

Three sequences may shape the week. A hawkish BoJ surprise alongside a soft Q1 GDP print would put the dollar in focus against the yen. A Big Tech capex disappointment in Powell's press conference would test how the market reads a hold paired with a cautious tone. A concrete Hormuz reopening would shift attention back to the energy complex. Traders may want to watch which catalyst lands first.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.