6 April 2026 Week Ahead: US Inflation Week Meets Trump’s Iran Ultimatum

Three first tier US events land inside three sessions this week. Traders will be reading the March FOMC minutes on Wednesday, February PCE on Thursday and March CPI on Friday. All three arrive while the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted by the Iran conflict, which has already pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel.

TL;DR

• March FOMC minutes release on Wednesday, 8 April at 14:00 ET

• February Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE and core PCE price indexes, on Thursday, 9 April at 08:30 ET

• March CPI on Friday, 10 April at 08:30 ET

• Fed funds target range held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on 18 March 2026, vote 11 to 1, Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point cut

• Strait of Hormuz traffic has fallen sharply since Operation Epic Fury began on 28 February 2026

The Context Going In

The March FOMC statement kept the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and flagged that "the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.". The Summary of Economic Projections lifted the 2026 headline and core PCE inflation path to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent in December 2025, while the median dot still showed one interest rate cut this year.

Since the meeting, oil has climbed further. Brent was quoted around $109 per barrel on 3 April 2026, and CNBC reported that Brent spot cargo for prompt loading rose to $141.36 on 2 April, the highest level cited since 2008. Gold traded near $4,676 on 5 April 2026.

Wednesday 08 April: FOMC minutes

The minutes of the 17 to 18 March meeting are scheduled for 14:00 ET on Wednesday 8 April, three weeks after the decision. Traders will focus on three things.

1. How participants framed the inflation impact of the Iran conflict and higher oil prices, 

2. The distribution of views on the 2026 rate path, given that seven participants in the dot plot saw no cuts this year while seven projected one. 

3. How the minutes describe the Miran dissent and the conditions that might justify an earlier cut.

Thursday 09 April: February PCE

The BEA releases Personal Income and Outlays for February at 08:30 ET on Thursday, 9 April. January's report showed the headline PCE price index up 0.3 percent month on month and 2.8 percent year on year, with core PCE up 3.1 percent year on year. The Fed targets 2 percent on the PCE measure. Because February data predates most of the Hormuz oil move, traders may read the print as a pre-shock benchmark rather than a conflict read. (Source: BEA)

Friday 10 April: March CPI

The BLS publishes March CPI at 08:30 ET on Friday, 10 April. February CPI rose 0.3 percent month-on-month seasonally adjusted and 2.4 percent over 12 months, with core CPI up 0.2 percent on the month and 2.5 percent over the year. March is the first full month in which higher crude and product prices linked to the Hormuz disruption may start to filter into goods and services inflation. Whether that shows up in core or only in the energy component is the key question for traders.

The Hormuz Backdrop

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply since Operation Epic Fury began on 28 February 2026. Lloyd's List Intelligence, cited by CNBC on 2 April, said transits had dropped by around 90 percent from pre-conflict levels, with selected vessels being vetted near Larak Island. Prior to the conflict, about 138 vessels transited the strait daily. On 4 April, the Iranian military said Iraqi shipments would be exempt from its restrictions.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iranian power plants and bridges and set a fresh Tuesday deadline for the strait to reopen. Fuel shortages have also widened, with Italy limiting jet fuel supplies at several airports and parts of Asia rationing energy. The EIA noted Brent settled at $94 on 9 March and linked higher prices to the fall in petroleum shipments through the strait and related shut-in production.

Conclusion

This week provides traders with three planned data releases and one unscheduled variable that is developing in the background. The situation in Hormuz has the potential to influence a single release and trigger a wider movement across various assets. The calendar is set in place, but the data is not.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.