May 2025 CPI Reports: US, Spain, France, Germany & Italy

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most important and anticipated inflation releases. Central banks use it to determine interest rates, and investors and traders use it to understand the economy’s direction better. 

Given its importance, keeping track of any upcoming CPI reports is crucial. Accordingly, this article explores some of May’s forthcoming CPI reports and what they mean for consumers and traders.

Let’s dive in:

TL;DR 

• US: CPI expected to rise 0.3% MoM in April; annual core CPI at 2.8%.

• Spain: Annual CPI forecast at 2.2%; core inflation may ease slightly.

• Germany: Headline inflation is easing; core CPI is rising due to services.

• France: Lowest headline inflation since 2021 at 0.8% YoY; services costs up.

• Italy: The CPI will rise to 2.0% YoY, the highest in 19 months; energy prices are a key driver.

US CPI Report (Tuesday, 13 May)

Economists anticipate that the US CPI will rise by 0.3% in April, month-over-month, reversing the 0.1% decline recorded in March. On an annual basis, the CPI is projected to increase by about 2.4%. The Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy components and is also expected to climb 0.3% for the month, translating to a 2.8% year-over-year gain.

For reference, in March, headline CPI dipped by 0.1% from the previous month but rose 2.4% compared to the prior year. Falling energy prices largely drove the decline, although food costs increased. Core inflation has been easing, with the 12-month increase in core CPI reaching its lowest since March 2021. (Source: Trading Economics)

Spain CPI (Wednesday, 14 May)

Spain’s annual inflation rate (CPI YoY) is expected to reach 2.2% in May 2025, reflecting a modest slowdown compared to earlier in the year and aligning with the European Commission’s forecast for average inflation in 2025. Every month, headline CPI is projected to rise by 0.6% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March, marking the largest monthly gain between July 2024 and December 2025. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is estimated at 2.4% year-over-year for April, up from 2.0% in the previous month. However, some expect the core rate to ease slightly to 2.3% by the end of the quarter.

Germany CPI (Wednesday, 14 May)

Germany’s annual inflation rate (CPI YoY) is forecast to ease slightly to 2.1% in April 2025, down from 2.2% in March, continuing a gradual downward trend in headline inflation. Every month, consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.4%, following a 0.3% increase the previous month. Despite declining overall inflation, core inflation is projected to increase to 2.9% in April (year-over-year) from 2.6% in March, signalling underlying price pressures. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which enables comparisons across EU countries, is expected to show a 2.2% annual increase and a 0.5% rise month-over-month. The decline in headline inflation is primarily driven by a sharp 5.4% drop in energy prices and a slower rise in food prices (2.8% in April vs. 3.0% in March). On the other hand, service inflation rose to 3.9% from 3.5%, driving the increase in core inflation.

France CPI (Thursday, 15 May)

According to provisional estimates from INSEE, France’s annual inflation rate (CPI YoY) is projected to remain unchanged at 0.8% in April 2025, marking the lowest level since early 2021 and highlighting a substantial easing of price pressures. Monthly consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.5%, a rise from March's 0.2% increase., driven primarily by higher costs in services, particularly transport, and a rebound in food prices, while energy prices are expected to decline further. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) enables cross-EU comparisons and is also forecast at 0.8% year-over-year, slightly down from 0.9% in March, with a monthly increase of 0.6%—the sharpest rise since August 2024. The headline inflation slowdown is largely due to a steep 7.9% annual drop in energy prices, partially offset by the recovery in food costs. Meanwhile, prices for services are expected to rise by 2.3% year-over-year, and manufactured goods are projected to decline by 0.2%, contributing to the overall stabilisation in core inflation components.

Italy CPI (Friday, 16 May)

Italy’s annual inflation rate (CPI YoY) is expected to rise to 2.0% in April 2025, up slightly from 1.9% in March and marking the sharpest annual increase in 19 months, signalling a continued normalisation of price growth following recent volatility. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are forecast to increase by 0.2%, after a 0.3% rise in March. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, is projected to reach 2.1% year-over-year, the highest in a year, reflecting persistent underlying price pressures. The uptick in inflation is primarily driven by surging regulated energy prices (up 32.9% YoY), rising transportation services (up 4.4% YoY), and increases in both fresh (4.2% YoY) and processed food (2.3% YoY). In comparison, non-regulated energy prices fell by 2.9%. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used for EU comparisons, is expected to come in at 2.1% YoY, consistent with recent trends. (Source: Istat)

Conclusion 

As central banks and financial markets closely monitor inflation trends, the upcoming CPI reports from major economies like the US, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy offer crucial insights. While headline inflation appears to be easing in several regions, persistent core inflation, primarily driven by services and energy volatility, remains a key concern. Understanding these nuanced dynamics helps consumers and traders prepare for shifts in interest rates, spending power, and market sentiment.

*Past performance does not reflect future results.