June 2025 Reports: Spain CPI, Germany CPI & France CPI

A new month has arrived, bringing with it key inflation reports. This week, on Friday, 13 June, data from major Eurozone economies, France, Spain and Germany, will be released, offering valuable insights into the health of these influential markets. 

Let’s take a closer look at the details:

TL;DR

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Spain, Germany, and France are scheduled for  Friday, 13 June.

• Spain’s May inflation is expected to be 1.9% YoY and core inflation at 2.1%, with a flat monthly change.

• Germany’s headline inflation forecast is at 2.1% YoY, core inflation is at 2.8%, and a monthly rise of 0.1%.

• France’s inflation is set to ease to 0.7% YoY, with a 0.1% monthly decline; core inflation is steady at 1.3%.

• Energy prices and government subsidies play significant roles in moderating inflation.

• Food price volatility and external geopolitical risks continue to pose inflationary risks.

Spain CPI

Spain’s inflation outlook for May reflects a continuation of recent easing trends. Below is a summary of the key developments and factors influencing the final figures, due this Friday:

• Annual inflation: Anticipated to ease to 1.9% in May, compared to 2.2% in April

• Core inflation: Projected to fall to 2.1%, from 2.4%

• Monthly inflation: Forecast to be flat at 0.0%

All in all, the final report will likely confirm the flash estimate, with annual inflation at approximately 1.9% and core inflation at 2.1%.

Factors Affecting Spain’s Inflation

Energy prices have played a major role in moderating headline inflation, with electricity prices rising more slowly and gas prices falling year-on-year. However, any unexpected shifts in oil, gas or electricity prices could still influence the final inflation outcome. Similarly, transport costs have eased, supported by declining fuel and lubricant prices for vehicles and government subsidies for public transport, which remain in place until June 2025. 

Food price increases have also slowed, particularly in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, though volatility in commodity markets and potential supply chain disruptions continue to pose upside risks. Inflation in housing, water, electricity and gas has shown continued moderation, helping to suppress overall inflation, given the significant weight of these components in the CPI basket. 

More broadly, government policy, especially ongoing public transport subsidies and other support measures, remains a key factor in keeping inflation in check.

Germany CPI

Germany’s Inflation is anticipated to remain close to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2% goal, with core inflation staying considerably elevated.

Here are the details:

• Headline Inflation: Forecast to hold steady at 2.1% year-on-year, in line with the preliminary estimate Slightly above market consensus

• Core Inflation (excluding food and energy): Projected at 2.8% year-on-year, indicating persistent underlying price pressures

• Monthly Change: CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% compared to April 2025

• Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP): Forecast to increase by 2.1% year-on-year and  Monthly change expected at +0.2%

Factors Affecting Germany’s Inflation 

Energy prices have fallen sharply in recent months, especially for motor fuels, solid fuels and heating oil, helping to ease overall inflation. However, further changes in global energy markets or government policies could affect the final figures.

Food inflation has also slowed but remains volatile due to supply disruptions and commodity price changes. Meanwhile, service inflation has picked up, reaching a three-month high in April, driven by higher hospitality, leisure, and personal services costs. 

Core inflation remains elevated, reflecting ongoing price pressures. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels make up a significant part of Germany’s CPI, so changes in rent, utilities or subsidies can have a major impact. Lower fuel prices have eased transport costs, though shifts in oil prices or transport policies could reverse this. 

Government measures like energy price caps and transport subsidies can temporarily influence inflation. External factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions and trade policy changes also pose risks to inflation. (Source: DW)

France CPI

• Annual Inflation: Expected to ease to 0.7%, down from 0.8% in April

• Monthly Change: Anticipated to decline by 0.1% in May, after a 0.6% increase in April

• HICP YoY: Projected at 0.6%, down from 0.9% in April

Factors Affecting France’s Inflation 

Declining energy prices, which fell 7.8% year-on-year in April 2025, have been a key factor easing inflation in France. Food inflation remains moderate but somewhat volatile, influenced by fresh produce prices and trade developments. 

Accounting for nearly half of the CPI, services continue to experience slower inflation following earlier wage rises and a weak economy. Manufactured goods prices show little to no inflation due to weak demand and better supply chains, with only moderate upward pressure expected. Tax changes can temporarily affect inflation and are often seen by households as driving future price increases. 

While past wage growth has pushed service inflation up, slower wage growth and a softer labour market are expected to moderate this. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, remains steady at about 1.3% year-on-year. External factors like global commodity prices and geopolitical tensions may also impact inflation through import costs.

Conclusion 

This week’s inflation reports from France, Spain, and Germany will provide essential insights into the Eurozone’s economic health. Spain’s inflation is anticipated to keep easing, supported by falling energy and transport costs. Germany’s inflation is forecast to stabilise near the ECB’s 2% target, though core inflation remains high due to persistent service price pressures. In France, inflation is set to ease further, driven by lower energy prices and moderated wage growth. External factors and government policies remain key influences across all three economies.

* Past performance does not reflect future results; only time will tell what lies ahead for these major economies. Projections are not intended to be actual performance and should not be relied upon as an indication of actual or future performance.