Copper Hits Record High in Bull Market for Metals

The price of copper reached a record high on Tuesday, 25 March, closing at $5.2105 per lb after reaching as high as $5.2285 during the session. The surge took the industrial metal’s price past the prior high made on 20 May 2024.

The front month copper futures (HG) has risen around 29% this year. The threat of US tariffs on copper imports in conjunction with a broader metals bull market has seen gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD) hit record and multi-decade highs respectively this year.

Copper Price Performance Chart

The breakout over the 20 May 2024 peak is a bullish development for copper prices, but according to rules used by technical analysts, the price should remain above the breakout price (~$5 per lb) to confirm the breakout.

The last high made in May 2024 was itself a breakout of the record high set in March 2022; however, it didn’t last, and the price traded back down again. As such, the current move into record territory could be viewed as a second breakout attempt out of the multi-year sideways market.

*Past performance does not indicate future results 

Trump’s Copper Tariffs

While US tariffs on copper are yet to be officially announced, prices are already moving in anticipation. International traders have been incentivised to bring copper into the US in order to trade at current prices before any possible duties are applied.

After US President Donald Trump directed the US Commerce Department last month to investigate potential copper tariffs on national security grounds, the price gap between New York and London copper has widened. In London, the copper price is traded in tonnes, as opposed to pounds, and is currently around $11,500 per tonne. 

US President Trump’s team has targeted copper specifically owing to the industrial metal's ever-greater economic importance, fueled by soaring demand for electrification in battery-powered vehicles, the explosion of artificial intelligence (AI), and the global shift to renewable energy. 

China Stimulus

While imports into the US have temporarily restricted copper supplies elsewhere in the world, China looks set to increase its demand for commodities in general. This is important because China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of copper. Moreover, Chinese buyers, who account for more than half of global demand, could find themselves competing with the US market, while the usual large outflow of scrap copper from the US has essentially dried up.

Copper gets its moniker ‘Dr. Copper’ because of its price trends and demand patterns, which may be considered a strong indicator of global economic health. Hence, the price of copper has been rising in hopes that China will deliver an economic stimulus this year. Last month, Beijing announced that it would target 5% of Chinese GDP growth in 2025 and raise its target budget deficit to the highest level in 30 years. (Source: EuroNews)

Metals Bull Market

Copper is not the only metal performing well this year. Gold has notched up 15 separate intraday record highs in 2025 with a 1-year gain of 40.46%. Silver is hot on its heels with a 1-year gain of 37.67%, though remains locked below record levels. The risk to gold and silver bulls is that they are in mature bull-market moves, so it’s possible most of the upside has already occurred.

Conclusion

Copper’s record high highlights the prospect of US tariffs, and higher demand under China’s expanding consumption. Metals like gold and silver have also posted notable gains, reinforcing a broad rally in metals markets this year and over the past 12 months. The market’s apparent reliance on government policy does pose risks should those policies change or never get adopted.

Only time will tell what lies ahead.

*Past performance does not indicate future results