Oil Prices Forecasts: 2026 Oil Price Prediction

Explore third-party monthly forecasts for crude oil (CL) price.

Plus500 Experts • March 2026 • 5 min read

What you’ll learn:

• Crude oil historical prices.
• Near-term crude oil price forecast.
• Factors influencing crude prices.

Crude oil price history:

• ~1973 oil shock: prices roughly quadrupled after the embargo (from ~$3 to ~$12/bbl).
  
• ~1986 glut: prices fell sharply below ~$10/bbl amid oversupply.
  
• July 2008 peak: Brent and WTI near record highs (~$147/bbl).
  
• 2014-16 collapse: Brent dropped from >$100 to below ~$30/bbl.
  
• April 2020 COVID crash: WTI futures went negative (~-$37/bbl); Brent also plunged sharply.
  
• 2022 post-Ukraine invasion: Brent averaged near ~$100/bbl.
  
• (WTI trend 2000-2024): WTI was ~$39.25/bbl (2020) → ~$94.58 (2022) → ~$75.87 (2024).
• 2025 average (EIA/analyst forecasts): Brent ≈ $68-69/bbl, WTI ≈ $64-65/bbl.
• 2 March 2026 (war in the Middle East): Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate soared on geopolitical tensions (especially between the USA, Israel, and Iran).

View crude oil historical chart:

Source: Macrotrends. Note: Prices are shown from 1975 until 2 March 2026.

Third-party near-term crude oil price forecasts & oil price predictions

Goldman Sachs

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Goldman Sachs projects that oil prices will remain elevated and volatile in the short term as renewed Middle East conflict intensifies concerns about supply disruptions.

Brent crude has surged above $80 per barrel, reflecting a geopolitical risk premium linked to potential disruptions at key chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20 % of global oil exports.

While OPEC+ plans to increase production quotas slightly, the market remains focused on security of supply rather than output levels. In the near term, Brent is likely to trade in the $80-$90 range, with the potential to spike above $100 if tensions escalate or critical infrastructure is affected.

Conversely, any rapid de-escalation could push prices back toward $67-$75 per barrel, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments, shipping disruptions, and shifts in global inventory levels. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, 2 March 2026)

Reuters

According to Reuters analysts, oil prices are likely to stay elevated and volatile in the near term as heightened Middle East conflict and geopolitical tensions add a significant risk premium to crude markets, driving Brent above recent ranges and keeping traders wary of supply disruptions through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters poll of analysts shows that these geopolitical risks have led forecasters to raise their 2026 price outlooks, with Brent now expected to average about $63.85 per barrel (and U.S. crude about $60.38) as of early 2026, reflecting a $4–$10 per barrel risk premium even amid expectations of continued global oversupply.

While the near term may see Brent trading broadly in the $80–$90 range, persistent oversupply and projections of a surplus later in the year could limit further upside unless tensions escalate further. (Source: Reuters, 27 February 2026)

EIA

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, oil prices are expected to trend lower over the year on fundamental grounds as production outpaces demand and inventories build, though near-term risk premiums are likely to keep prices elevated above baseline fundamentals. (Source: EIA, 10 February 2026)

Drivers & risks for short-term oil prices

Short-term oil prices remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, where conflicts threaten chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent toward $80–$90 per barrel, according to the Wall Street Journal. Supply factors, including OPEC+ decisions, U.S. shale output, and unexpected disruptions, influence availability, while global demand trends and inventory levels affect near-term pressures, as noted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Market sentiment and speculation can amplify price swings. Analysts surveyed by Reuters highlight that geopolitical risks have raised 2026 price forecasts, though oversupply may limit gains. Key risks include escalation of conflicts, sudden supply shocks, weak demand, and speculative volatility.

Key Takeaways:

• Crude prices are highly volatile due to Middle East tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent is trading $80–$90/bbl, with potential spikes above $100 if conflict escalates; rapid de-escalation could bring $67–$75/bbl.
• Analysts raise 2026 forecasts despite oversupply concerns (Brent ~$64, WTI ~$60).
• Drivers: geopolitical risks, OPEC+/U.S. shale supply, demand trends, inventories, and market sentiment.
• Key risks: conflict escalation, supply shocks, weak demand, speculative volatility

*The content provided on this website is for marketing and general informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment research, advice, or a personal recommendation, nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Information and views are based on third-party sources and historical data believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Any opinions or forecasts are subject to change without notice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This material does not consider individual objectives or financial circumstances and should not be relied upon as personalised advice. PLUS500 does not provide investment research or personalised recommendations and accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this information.