Oil Climbs After Trump Rejects Iran’s Response, Ahead of US CPI & Fed Chair Handover

Oil prices climbed on Monday, 11 May, following updates on the Middle East conflict. The move came after US President Donald Trump said that Iran's counter-proposal to end the conflict was "totally unacceptable" and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's “60 Minutes” CBS interview, in which he said the conflict was "not over". Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed since 28 February 2026, with the IEA estimating a roughly 14 million-barrel-per-day supply disruption.

TL;DR

• Oil prices have risen on Monday 

• Trump called Iran's response "totally unacceptable" 

• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the conflict was "not over" in his CBS interview

• Iran's response sought compensation and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, with no mention of its nuclear programme, decoupling the two tracks

• This week, US CPI (Tue), PPI (Wed) and Retail Sales (Thu) will be published

• Powell's term as Fed Chair ends Friday, 15 May; Warsh's confirmation vote is expected this week 

The Latest Updates 

The weekend brought no diplomatic breakthrough. Tehran's counter-proposal sought compensation and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X that Iran would not yield to its enemies. On 4 May, the Chinese-owned chemical tanker JV Innovation was attacked, the first reported strike on a Chinese vessel during the crisis. On 8 May, Iran seized the sanctioned tanker Ocean Koi in the Gulf of Oman, while US forces disabled two empty Iranian tankers attempting to breach a US naval blockade in place since 13 April.

Oil Sets the Tone

Brent's Friday close of $101.29 a barrel finished the week down roughly 6%, while WTI ended at $95.42, down about 7%. However, oil prices rebounded on early Monday trading, following Trump's rejection of Iran's response and Netanyahu's remarks on CBS. 

Gold, Dollar and Equities Move

Gold futures closed Friday at $4,730.70 per ounce, up 0.42% on the session and around 2% for the week. Gold sits roughly 10% below its February peak, with the pullback widely attributed to firmer real yields and profit-taking after the initial conflict-driven rally, even as safe-haven demand persists. The US Dollar Index closed at 97.84, broadly unchanged for the week. US equities closed Friday with the S&P 500 at 7,398.93 (+0.84%), the Nasdaq 100 at 26,247.08 (+1.71%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 49,609.16 (+0.02%. Moreover,  the VIX settled at 17. 19. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

US Data Week and the Fed Handover

Besides the above, traders may want to keep track of the following releases this week, with the main ones being as follows: 

• Tuesday, 12 May: April US CPI (consensus is +0.6% MoM headline and +3.7% YoY, core +0.3% MoM and +2.7% YoY).

• Wednesday, 13 May:  April US PPI.

• Thursday, 14 May: April Retail Sales.

Additionally, Jerome Powell is scheduled to step down as Fed Chair on Friday, 15 May. The Senate is anticipated to vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as his successor this week. Given that Warsh is perceived as more hawkish on inflation than Powell, a high CPI reading could introduce further volatility to interest rate expectations and US Dollar valuations.

Conclusion

Traders enter the week with the conflict back at the centre of pricing and a full inflation data run between Tuesday and Thursday, on top of the Fed Chair handover by Friday. The bearish risk scenario combines an above-consensus CPI print with no movement on Hormuz. The constructive scenario requires a softer inflation reading alongside a credible de-escalation signal from either side.

*Past performance does not guarantee future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.