Spanish Firms at Risk From Trump's Tariffs

Donald Trump’s plan to reintroduce sweeping trade tariffs — already nicknamed “The Big One” — comes into effect on Wednesday (2 April). The US president has hinted at broad measures to penalise countries he believes are undermining the American industry, leaving global exporters on edge as they brace for the fallout. 

Among the confirmed measures is a 25% tariff on imported automobiles. Washington is also preparing “reciprocal” tariffs on goods from countries with trade surpluses against the US, a move that could hit a wide swath of European exports. 

On top of that, any country importing Venezuelan oil could face a 25% penalty. (Source: The White House)

​Accordingly, European industries, particularly in the automotive, food and drink, and luxury goods sectors, are bracing for significant challenges due to impending tariffs, and Spain is no exception. Several IBEX 35-listed companies rely heavily on international revenue streams. For some of them, the risk is particularly acute given their exposure to regions likely to be directly affected by Trump’s trade policies.

BBVA, Mexico and US Tariffs 

Mexico is BBVA’s [BBVA.E] largest and most profitable market, delivering EUR 5.44 billion in earnings in 2024 — more than half of the group’s total. The country is a cornerstone of the bank’s growth story, driven by strong demand for consumer credit.

However, that momentum is now under threat. New US tariffs on Mexican exports could significantly weaken the country’s economic outlook. According to the Wilson Center, the tariffs could lead to a GDP contraction of up to 4% in 2025. (Source: WilsonCenter)

As such, the performance of banks is closely linked to the economic development of the country, so the consequences for BBVA would be direct as a result of a slowdown in Mexico.

Repsol’s Venezuela operations

Repsol’s [REP.E] operations in Venezuela are under pressure following the US administration's decision to revoke permits for foreign companies exporting Venezuelan crude. 

The Spanish energy firm has until 27 May to wind down its activities in that country.

In 2024, Repsol significantly increased its imports of Venezuelan oil, bolstering production at its joint venture with state-owned PDVSA. If this materialises, it could have an impact, as last year, Repsol's average net production in the country reached 67,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which represents more than 11% of its annual production.

Meanwhile, Venezuela Repsol's operations in 2024 amounted to EUR 161m, which represents approximately 8% of the Spanish company's annual turnover of EUR 1.79 billion euros.

Acerinox At Crossroads With US Tariffs

Acerinox [ACX.E] is facing a delicate balancing act as the US reintroduces a 25% tariff on imported steel. The Spanish stainless steel giant has a strong footprint in the US through its Kentucky-based subsidiary. (Source: Cadena SER)

This domestic presence helps shield Acerinox from the full impact of the tariffs since products manufactured in the US are exempt from import duties. As a result, the company could even emerge as one of the relative beneficiaries of the new trade policy.

However, with operations in 52 countries, Acerinox is far from insulated. The EU has launched countermeasures on US imports into the EU, fueling concerns of a broader conflict. As trade tensions escalate, the global outlook for steel producers remains uncertain.

Conclusion

Trump's tariffs have reintroduced geopolitical risk into the profit equation. BBVA, Repsol, and Acerinox have a certain degree of exposure, although the extent of the impact remains to be seen.

Each faces different pressures, determined by the regions in which it operates and the sectors it serves. For now, uncertainty around global trade policy is back on the table.

The coming months will reveal how these and other Spain-based companies adapt. Much will depend on the depth of future US trade measures and whether the EU takes countermeasures.

*Past performance does not reflect future results.