24 March Week Ahead: Economic Data (PCE, PMI, CPI) & Earnings

The week of 24 March is packed with key economic and financial updates that will give traders and investors a clearer view of the economy's direction this year. 

First up, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, could offer new insights into inflation and the Fed’s next move. Additionally, the latest PMI reports will provide a snapshot of the manufacturing and services sectors. We’ll also see data on consumer spending, employment, and business sentiment, helping to shape the broader economic picture. 

Here’s a quick rundown of the key events and data releases to watch this week:

PCE: How Is Inflation in the World’s Largest Economy?

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), a key measure of inflation, is set to be released this week on Friday, 28 March. 

The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s key measure of inflation and is often taken into account when the central bank determines interest rates. As such, market participants and consumers alike may want to monitor Friday’s release. 

While the actual results are yet to be determined, expectations point toward a 2.5% YoY hike and core PCE is expected to show a 2.6% gain. If this materialises, then the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged will be further supported. 

Interestingly, however, some analysts project that consumer spending will likely regain momentum while personal income growth drops. These conflicting economic conditions highlight the current uncertainty surrounding the state of the world’s biggest economy. In addition to the above, it is important to note that US President Donald Trump’s economic policies and trade tariffs (Trumponomics) may also affect Friday’s report. 

Eurozone & UK PMI: What Will be Revealed About the Manufacturing and Services Sectors?

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a measure of the manufacturing and services sectors’ health, will be released from the UK and the Eurozone today, Monday, 24 March. 

UK PMI

March’s UK services PMI is expected to rise a tad to 51.4 from February’s 51.0 as a “lack of growth alongside rising price pressures [pointed] to a stagflationary environment.” Some analysts note that this time may mark a “relatively gloomy reading” with little improvement as trade tariffs, particularly on steel and aluminium, seem to have “depressed” manufacturers’ sentiments. 

EZ PMI

March’s EZ manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 48.4 from the prior 47.6, while services are expected to rise to 51.0 from 50.6. Analysts previously noted that "the Eurozone economy has barely grown for two months in a row now, as the mild growth in the services sector is almost fully eaten up by the recession in the manufacturing sector.” (Source: TradingView)

Australia CPI: What Will be Revealed About Inflation?

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation and deflation, is set to be released this Wednesday, 26 March. This report is anticipated to offer valuable insights for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as speculation about potential interest rate cuts in April grows. While projections for this release remain uncertain, it’s worth noting that January’s CPI stood at 2.5% year-over-year (YoY).

Earnings Reports

Earnings season, a key period for investors and analysts, will continue this week with important quarterly reports. On Wednesday, 26 March, both Dollar Tree, a leading discount retailer, and Chewy, an online pet product retailer, will announce their earnings. 

The following day, Thursday, 27 March, will bring earnings reports from Lululemon Athletica, the athletic apparel brand known for its high-quality leggings and activewear, and Walgreens Boots Alliance, a major player in the healthcare and pharmacy sectors. Investors will closely monitor these results to assess the resilience of the retail and healthcare industries, particularly in the wake of economic challenges and changing consumer habits.

More Data 

Tuesday 25 March

• US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

• US Consumer Confidence 

• US New Homes Sales 

• Remarks from New York Fed President John Williams

Wednesday, 26 March

US Durable-Goods Orders 

Thursday, 27 March:

• US Initial Jobless Claims 

• US Q4 Revised GDP 

• Advanced US Trade Balance 

• Remarks from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

Friday, 28 March:

• US Consumer Sentiment

• Remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Conclusion

This week is filled with key economic updates that will provide valuable insights into inflation, consumer spending, and the overall health of both the US and global economies. Key releases like the PCE inflation data, PMI reports, and earnings reports will offer a clearer view of economic trends, helping traders, investors, and policymakers make more informed decisions. With market expectations and uncertainty surrounding inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, all eyes will be on these pivotal updates.

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